As debates over immigration policy heat up ahead of the midterm elections, a growing body of economic research is painting a stark picture: aggressive enforcement measures don’t just target undocumented workers—they ripple through local economies, squeezing job opportunities for American citizens and straining small businesses.
Dr. Hani Mansour, a professor of economics at the University of Colorado Denver, has been at the forefront of this analysis.
In a recent discussion on 9News’ Business Buzz, Mansour joined host Ryan Frazier to unpack the real-world fallout from policies like the Secure Communities program, a federal initiative rolled out between 2008 and 2014 that dramatically ramped up deportations.
What started as a conversation about past policies quickly turned into a cautionary tale for today’s enforcement landscape, where proposals for mass deportations and expanded workplace raids are gaining traction.
“These policies sound straightforward on paper—remove undocumented workers to free up jobs for Americans,” Mansour explained during the segment.
“But the data tells a different story. We’re seeing job losses not just among immigrants, but among U.S.-born workers too, especially in sectors where everyone relies on a stable, affordable workforce.”
The Numbers Behind the Policy
Mansour’s findings, detailed in his 2023 paper “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement” published in the Journal of Labor Economics, draw on a massive dataset from the American Community Survey spanning 2005 to 2014.
The study zeroed in on Secure Communities, which linked local police databases to federal immigration records, leading to the deportation of over 450,000 people nationwide.
Key takeaways from the research:
- Direct Hit on Undocumented Workers: The policy slashed the employment rate of likely undocumented immigrants by 5.7 percentage points. This wasn’t limited to deportations; a “chilling effect” kept many others from seeking work or even interacting with law enforcement, shrinking the overall labor pool.
- Unexpected Blow to American Jobs: Perhaps most surprising, U.S.-born citizens saw their employment drop as well—equivalent to about 300,000 lost jobs across the country. The hardest hit were middle- and high-skilled workers, whose roles often complement those of low-skilled immigrants.
- Wage Pressures and Sector Shifts: Wages for remaining low-skilled workers ticked up slightly due to tighter labor supply, but this came at a cost. Businesses faced higher operational expenses, curbing hiring and expansion. Sectors like construction, agriculture, hospitality, and manufacturing—industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor—reported slower growth and reduced output.
| Impact Area | Effect on Undocumented Immigrants | Effect on U.S.-Born Workers | Broader Economic Ripple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment | -5.7% employment share | -0.9% overall; up to 2% loss in high-skill roles | ~300,000 national job losses |
| Wages | Minimal change (chilling effect dominates) | Slight decline in affected sectors | Increased labor costs for businesses |
| Key Sectors | Low-skilled jobs (e.g., farm, service) hardest hit | High-skilled complements (e.g., management, tech oversight) | Reduced local spending hurts retail, housing |
These effects weren’t uniform. In counties with high immigrant populations, like those in California and Texas, the downturn was sharper.
Mansour’s team used a difference-in-differences model—comparing pre- and post-policy data across staggered rollout counties—to isolate the enforcement’s true impact, controlling for economic trends like the Great Recession.
From Labor Costs to Lost Customers
For local entrepreneurs, the story hits close to home.
“Imagine running a restaurant or construction firm,” Mansour told Frazier.
“Your reliable crew gets scared off or deported, costs skyrocket to replace them, and suddenly you’re not bidding on new projects. Meanwhile, families in the community have less money to spend because jobs are drying up.”
The research highlights two main channels for this spillover:
- Rising Labor Costs: With fewer low-wage workers available, businesses pay more for help—or cut back altogether. This “substitution effect” doesn’t fully benefit natives, as many lack the flexibility or willingness for those grueling roles.
- Economic Contraction: Deportations and fear reduce local consumption. Immigrant households, often integral to community spending, pull back, dragging down demand for goods and services. It’s a vicious cycle: fewer workers mean less production, which means fewer dollars circulating.
Mansour, who co-authored the study with colleagues Chloe N. East, Annie L. Hines, Philip Luck, and Andrea Velásquez, emphasized that low-skilled immigrants and higher-skilled Americans often work as complements, not competitors.
“A manager overseeing a diverse team isn’t threatened by the line worker—they need each other to thrive,” he noted.
A Timely Warning in 2025’s Political Climate
With immigration enforcement front and center in national discourse—fueled by border security pledges and workplace audit proposals—Mansour’s work couldn’t be more relevant.
Recent data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shows enforcement actions up 20% year-over-year, echoing the Secure Communities era.
Advocates for stricter policies argue they protect American wages and security.
But Mansour pushes back with evidence: “The goal of boosting native employment isn’t met—in fact, it’s undermined. Policymakers need to weigh these trade-offs, especially for small businesses that can’t absorb the shocks.”
Local business groups in Denver echo this.
Maria Gonzalez, owner of a family-run landscaping company in Aurora, shared her experience: “We’ve lost good workers to fear of raids. Now we’re short-staffed, prices are up, and clients are complaining. It’s not just about immigration—it’s about keeping Colorado’s economy humming.”
Also Read: Economists Now Warn Trump’s Immigration Policies Will Slow US Economy
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