- White House insiders privately blame Trump’s focus on foreign policy and the prolonged shutdown for GOP election losses and worsening economic anxiety.
- Party fractures widen as critics urge a shift to affordability messaging and consider drastic moves like terminating the filibuster to avoid 2026 disaster.
WASHINGTON—Just one year after Donald Trump’s triumphant return to the White House, Republicans are waking up to a harsh reality: the party’s grip on power is slipping, and the finger-pointing has already begun.
Tuesday’s off-year elections delivered a bruising series of defeats for GOP candidates in key states, from Virginia’s governor’s mansion to New York City’s mayoral race, handing Democrats a sweep that has insiders whispering about a potential “blue wave” heading into the 2026 midterms.
At the center of the storm? President Trump himself, whose administration’s focus on foreign policy triumphs and a protracted government shutdown are drawing sharp, private rebukes from his own allies.
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The results were as clear as they were unexpected. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former congresswoman, ousted Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to become the state’s first female governor, flipping the seat held by GOP rising star Glenn Youngkin just four years prior.
Spanberger’s victory margin hovered around 10 points, fueled by frustration among federal workers—many furloughed due to the shutdown—and broader economic anxieties that hit Virginia’s D.C. suburbs hard.
Over in New Jersey, ex-Rep. Mikie Sherrill crushed Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who had high hopes after a strong showing in 2021, in a race that GOP strategists now call a “bloodbath.”
Sherrill, campaigning on affordability and a critique of Trump’s economic record, won by double digits in a state that Trump barely lost in 2024.
The defeats didn’t stop there. In New York City, self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani surged to victory in the mayoral contest, trouncing the Republican incumbent with a platform laser-focused on skyrocketing living costs—a message that resonated amid persistent inflation.
Trump didn’t mince words, blasting the result on social media as the “installation of a communist” and vowing to keep America from going “communist in any way, shape or form.”
California rounded out the Democratic haul with the passage of Proposition 50, a ballot measure pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to redraw congressional maps and counter GOP gerrymandering efforts in states like Texas—efforts Trump himself had championed earlier this year.
The measure passed, neutralizing potential Republican gains in the House and setting the stage for a fierce redistricting battle ahead of next year’s midterms.
What Insiders Are Saying…
For Democrats, it was a night of unbridled optimism. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries captured the mood Wednesday morning, declaring that voters had sent a resounding message on “affordability”—the kitchen-table issue that Democrats hammered relentlessly in their ads.
Exit polls backed him up: Nearly half of Virginia voters cited the economy as their top concern, with 59% of them backing Spanberger over her GOP rival.
“We sent a message,” one Democratic strategist told USA Today, pointing to the wins as a blueprint for flipping the House in 2026.
Even in purple battlegrounds, the results hinted at shifting coalitions—Latinos and suburban voters who tilted toward Trump in 2024 showed signs of peeling away, frustrated by unfulfilled promises on costs and a perceived attack via aggressive immigration.
But it’s the Republican soul-searching that’s turning heads in Washington. White House insiders, speaking anonymously to Politico, didn’t hold back in laying the blame at Trump’s feet.
“People don’t think he’s lived up to his promises,” one ally said. “You won on lowering costs, putting more money back into people’s pockets. And people don’t feel that right now.”
Another insider echoed the sentiment: “Too much focus on foreign policy while people are hurting at home delivered exactly the results you’d expect.”
The critique stings particularly because it mirrors attacks Trump leveled at Joe Biden during the 2024 campaign—comparisons that have the 79-year-old president fuming privately.
Trump’s second term kicked off with grand vows to “vanish” inflation and “make America affordable again,” but a year in, costs remain stubbornly high.
Grocery prices are up 25% since 2020, and the ongoing government shutdown—now in its 35th day—has slashed food assistance for over 40 million Americans, just as Trump wrapped up a lavish ‘Great Gatsby’-themed Halloween bash at Mar-a-Lago.
Polls show 52% of voters pinning the shutdown on Trump and the GOP, up from earlier in the standoff.
Compounding the pain, Trump’s team has been consumed by overseas wins, like last month’s Gaza peace deal, which he touts endlessly while eyeing a Nobel Prize.
“The President hasn’t talked about the cost of living in months,” a person close to the White House told The Daily Beast. “People are still hurting financially and they want to know the White House is paying attention.”
Prominent MAGA Circles Also Voice Their Pain
Even in MAGA circles, the grumbling is audible. Right-wing podcaster Mike Cernovich took to X, warning: “Trump spent all year on the Middle East, his big donors loved this, the voters did not.”
Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle piled on, urging the party to get back to “actually implementing America First.”
Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump’s Ohio gubernatorial ally who eked out a win amid the carnage, was blunter still: The GOP blew it by failing to tackle rising costs head-on.
New Jersey GOP strategist Mike DuHaime called it a “disastrous night” nationally, urging his party to “heed some warnings.”
Trump, predictably, isn’t taking the heat lying down. In a Truth Social post as results rolled in, he quoted unnamed “pollsters”: “‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT.'”
At a tense White House breakfast with Senate Republicans Wednesday morning, he doubled down, calling the shutdown a “big factor” in the losses and demanding an end to the filibuster to ram through funding without Democratic votes.
“It is time for Republicans to do what they have to do and that is to terminate the filibuster,” Trump told the group, warning that failure to act would paint the party as “do-nothing Republicans” and doom them in 2026.
“We had an interesting evening, and we learned a lot,” he added dryly, before pivoting to insist Democrats weren’t getting enough blame.
Is Nuking the Filibuster a Good Idea?
The pushback from Capitol Hill is palpable, exposing raw tensions within the party. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other leaders are caught in a bind—Trump’s filibuster gambit could unify hardliners but alienate moderates already jittery about the shutdown’s fallout.
Some senators predict a quick resolution this week, but Democrats’ sweep has emboldened them to hold firm.
Vice President JD Vance tried to play peacemaker, calling for an end to “infighting,” but his words rang hollow amid the recriminations.
Aides close to Trump are shifting blame to candidates like Earle-Sears and Ciattarelli, calling them “vulnerable” from the start.
White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, a veteran of Trump’s 2024 campaign, signaled a course correction. “You’ll see the president talk a lot about cost of living as we turn … into the new year,” he told Politico’s podcast.
Trump himself posted on Truth Social this week: “Affordability is our goal,” the same inspiring words democrat leaders used to woo the public.
But with approval ratings sagging and the shutdown dragging on, skeptics wonder if it’s too little, too late. As one GOP operative put it to Raw Story, the party is in a “tizzy,” with insiders “showing signs that they’re turning on” the president.
The Clock is Ticking for Real “America First” Change
These off-year races, limited to blue-leaning states, aren’t a perfect midterm predictor—history shows the out-of-power party usually thrives in year twos.
Yet the structural edges Republicans hold, like a favorable House map from recent gerrymanders, feel shakier now.
CNN’s analysis framed it starkly: The 2025 results “crystallized the GOP’s post-Trump problem,” where his brand energizes the base but repels swing voters in a way that midterms amplify.
As The Washington Post put it, the party is “reeling,” split on fixes from ditching the filibuster to overhauling messaging.
For Trump, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A Democratic House in 2026 could stall his agenda, revive impeachment talk, and hobble his lame-duck years.
The blame game, already fierce, will only intensify. “If Republicans aren’t scared by what happened Tuesday night, they should be,” Punchbowl News warned.
In a city built on spin, one thing’s certain: The GOP’s internal fractures are deepening, and Trump’s ability to paper over them will define his presidency’s final act.
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