- Recent polls show Latino support for Trump has significantly declined from 2024 highs, with major disapproval on his job performance, immigration, and the economy.
- Election results in late 2025 and expert analysis suggest these shifts could hurt Republicans in 2026 races across key Hispanic-populated states.
Just a year ago, Donald Trump pulled off something remarkable: he boosted his share of the Latino vote to levels no Republican had seen in decades.
But now, as his second term rolls on, fresh polls are painting a different picture—one where that hard-won support is starting to fade.
President Trump appears to be losing ground with Latino voters, according to recent surveys and some telling election results from late 2025.
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This shift could spell trouble for Republicans eyeing the 2026 midterms, especially since Latinos remain one of the fastest-growing groups at the ballot box.
Why This Matters At This Moment
Latino voters have long leaned Democratic, but Trump changed that narrative in 2024.
Pew Research Center data shows he jumped from 36 percent of the Latino vote in 2020 to 48 percent last year—a huge gain that helped secure his win.
Holding onto that momentum isn’t just about Trump; it’s crucial for the GOP overall.
With midterms coming up in 2026, any erosion here could flip close races, particularly in states with big Hispanic populations like Florida, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona.
The Numbers Tell a Tough Story
Recent polling isn’t kind to the president’s standing among Latinos.
Pew Research Center’s analysis from September and October surveys found that 70 percent of Latinos disapprove of Trump’s job performance overall.
Digging deeper: 65 percent disapprove of his immigration policies, and 61 percent believe his economic approach has actually worsened the economy.
Even among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, approval has dipped.
Pew noted that 81 percent of them still back his performance—but that’s down from 93 percent right at the start of his second term.
Another survey, from November, by Axios/Ipsos in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, polled over 1,100 Latino and Hispanic Americans.
It revealed that 65 percent now say it’s a “bad time” to be Latino or Hispanic in the U.S.—a stark jump from 40 percent who felt that way back in March 2024.
Partisan differences were clear: 84 percent of Latino Democrats agreed it was a bad time, compared to just 32 percent of Latino Republicans.
The poll also touched on immigration enforcement.
Trump’s administration has ramped up raids, sending Department of Homeland Security staff to cities for operations.
In response, 31 percent of respondents said ICE actions have altered their daily routines.
And 51 percent felt these deportation efforts sweep too broadly, targeting all Latinos—including U.S.-born citizens and legal residents.
On the economy—a top issue for many voters—things look even grimmer.
Trump campaigned hard on lowering inflation in 2024, but an August survey by Equis and Data for Progress showed 63 percent of Latino voters disapproving of his economic handling, with only 34 percent approving.
That nets out to a -29 approval rating on this front.
What Experts Are Saying
Gabriel Sanchez, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico, broke it down for Newsweek.
He pointed out that many Latinos backed Trump because “the Trump campaign blamed immigrants for everything from the lack of high paying jobs and affordable housing, to the reason why the nation was experiencing inflation.”
But now, Sanchez said, “Latinos are asking themselves how the deportation raids and crackdown on undocumented immigrants is not making the economy any better?
You add to that the fact that the campaign promised a focus on criminals with deportation efforts and particularly violent criminals.
This has clearly not been the case, with a much broader net used by the administration which has included a growing number of Latino citizens being detained by ICE.”
Sanchez added that the downturn in polling is “being driven mostly by the economic challenges Latinos continue to face and their growing concerns that the Trump administration is not solving the economy problems as they promised but making them worse.”
He went on: “Economic vulnerability was a major force that drove Trump to do much better among Latinos in 2024 than he did in his last two elections among Latino voters.
Given that prices remain high and that many Latinos believe the tariffs implemented by the president are making these worse, it is natural that a lot of those Latino Trump voters from 2024 are re-thinking their decision.”
In another comment to Newsweek, Sanchez noted:
“Survey data of the Latino population are consistently projecting a movement of Latino voters back toward Democratic candidates following the Trump election that saw a significant improvement for the president among the Latino electorate.”
Signs from Recent Elections
It’s not just polls—actual votes in late 2025 races are flashing warning signs too.
In Miami, a city that’s majority-Hispanic and long a Republican stronghold, voters hadn’t picked a Democratic mayor in almost three decades.
But in the recent election, Democrat Eileen Higgins won by about 19 percentage points, per the Associated Press.
Over in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Areas with large Hispanic communities, like Union City and Perth Amboy, swung toward Democrats.
Similar Democratic shifts showed up in Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race with 57.6 percent of the vote.
What Happens Moving Forward?
Trump’s approval across all groups, including Latinos, could rise or fall as his term progresses.
Policies on immigration, the economy, and more will keep playing a big role.
For now, though, the data suggests those 2024 gains aren’t locked in.
Republicans will need to watch this closely heading into 2026.
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