- Recent Manhattan Institute poll shows Republican Elise Stefanik leading Gov. Kathy Hochul 43% to 42%, signaling a potential GOP pickup in New York.
- Forecasters remain cautious: other polls favor Hochul and Democrats hold structural advantages, making any GOP flip uncertain despite shifting voter frustrations.
ALBANY, N.Y. – New York, long a fortress for Democratic dominance in national politics, is showing unexpected cracks just a year out from the 2026 midterm elections.
A fresh poll released this week suggests Republicans could reclaim the state’s governor’s mansion for the first time since George Pataki left office in 2006, with U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik edging out incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical matchup.
The findings come amid a broader Republican push to capitalize on voter frustrations over crime, taxes, and economic pressures, setting the stage for what could be one of the most watched state races in the country.
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The survey, conducted by the Manhattan Institute – a conservative think tank – between Oct. 22 and 26, quizzed 600 New York City voters and 300 statewide, with results weighted for population demographics.
It showed Stefanik, the GOP firebrand from the North Country’s 21st Congressional District, leading Hochul 43% to 42%.
Against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, a potential Democratic primary challenger, her advantage swelled to 43% to 37%. The margin of error sits at ±3.3 percentage points, meaning the race is essentially a dead heat within sampling tolerances.
“This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democratic incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement,” said Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, in a press release.
She didn’t hold back on the digs: “In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the Worst Governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the Defund the Police, tax hiking, raging Antisemite Socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.”
Will Republicans Lead New York Soon?
The poll’s release on Tuesday sent ripples through Albany’s political circles, where Democrats have held the governorship uninterrupted for nearly two decades.
Pataki’s three terms from 1995 to 2006 remain the last Republican interlude, an era remembered for tax cuts and welfare reform but also for the party’s subsequent struggles in a state increasingly defined by New York City’s liberal leanings and upstate strongholds that have trended blue.
Hochul’s 2022 victory – a narrow 53.1% to 46.3% squeaker over Lee Zeldin – was already a warning sign, her smallest margin since 1994.
Last year’s presidential results amplified the unease: Kamala Harris pulled just under 56% in New York, the weakest Democratic showing in the state in decades, as Donald Trump’s second-term comeback energized rural and suburban voters.
Areas like Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany – traditional Democratic bulwarks – saw turnout dips that favored GOP messaging on inflation and border security.
But not everyone’s buying the hype. Other recent surveys paint a rosier picture for Hochul. A Siena College poll from early September, based on 802 likely voters, had her up 52% to 27% over Stefanik, with 17% undecided and a ±4.2% margin of error.
Meanwhile, a GrayHouse poll of 1,255 likely voters in late September showed Hochul ahead 48% to 43% on an initial ballot test, though Stefanik flipped it to a razor-thin 46.4% to 45.9% once voters got more info on the candidates.
Forecasters remain cautious: The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as “Likely Democratic,” citing Hochul’s fundraising edge and the party’s structural advantages in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1.
Journalist Alex Gault, posting on X (formerly Twitter), flagged the poll’s origins: “The Manhattan Institute, which crafted this poll, is a known conservative thinktank. Notable that while two Republican-linked orgs show Stefanik ahead, the really independent pollster SCRI shows a completely different reality.”
The Empire State’s Races Could Ripple Nationally
Stefanik, 41, hasn’t formally declared her intentions – she’s waiting until after November’s off-year elections, according to WPTZ, an NBC affiliate covering her district – but the tea leaves point to a run.
A Siena poll from July had her leading other potential GOP hopefuls like U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (17 points ahead) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (28 points clear).
President Trump’s May endorsements of Lawler and Blakeman for their current gigs were seen by insiders as a nod to clearing the path for Stefanik, a loyal Trump ally who’s balanced moderate stances on issues like abortion with hardline support for his agenda.
The buzz around Stefanik underscores a larger Republican strategy to flip the script in New York. In the U.S. House, the GOP already holds seven of the state’s 26 seats post-2024, including safe strongholds like the 1st (Nick LaLota, 55.5% win), 2nd (Andrew Garbarino, 59.8%), and 11th (Nicole Malliotakis, 64.1%).
Districts like Lawler’s 17th in the Hudson Valley – a narrow 51.3% hold – are must-defends, while toss-ups in the 19th and 22nd offer pickup chances.
Redistricting talks are bubbling too: Though legal hurdles make mid-decade changes unlikely in New York, GOP leaders in states like Texas and North Carolina are redrawing lines that could indirectly pressure Democrats here by shifting national maps.
Broader midterm dynamics add fuel. History shows the president’s party – Republicans this time – loses an average of 28 House seats in midterms, per Brookings Institution analysis.
With Trump’s slim 220-215 majority, even modest Democratic gains could flip the chamber.
In New York, that equation favors challengers: A Siena July survey found Hochul’s re-elect number stuck at 37%, with 55% opting for “someone else,” and her leads over GOP rivals hovering at 20-25 points but never cracking 50%.
Undecideds topped 25% in those matchups, a red flag for incumbents. “Across the state, we’ve made significant progress,” Lawler told the Conservative Party of New York in February.
“Voters want balance. They want common sense.” Democrats fired back, with state party chair Jay S. Jacobs warning that Lawler’s ties to anti-abortion groups could alienate moderates if he jumps in.
As 2026 looms – primaries in June, general election Nov. 3 – the Empire State’s races could ripple nationally.
A Stefanik upset wouldn’t just end Democratic trifecta control here; it might signal Trump’s coattails extending into blue territory, complicating Democratic House recapture dreams.
For now, though, it’s pollsters’ word against the pundits’. In a state where the last three presidential popular vote margins were under four points, nothing’s set in stone.
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