President Donald Trump’s latest immigration salvo—a whopping $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications—has sent shockwaves through Silicon Valley and beyond, leaving economists warning of a self-inflicted brain drain that could hobble American innovation and growth.
Signed into a proclamation last Friday, the one-off charge—60 times the current fee—aims to push companies toward hiring more US workers, but it’s already triggered travel warnings for tech staff and a sharp drop in Indian IT stocks, with experts decrying it as a recipe for economic self-sabotage.
The move couldn’t have landed at a worse time for the tech sector, which leans heavily on the H-1B program to snag top global talent in fields like engineering and coding.
Under the program, employers can sponsor just 65,000 visas a year for specialized roles, plus another 20,000 for those with advanced degrees.
Details of the H-1B Program
Last year, India scooped up 71% of approvals, fueling giants like Amazon (over 10,000 in the first half of 2025 alone), Microsoft, and Meta (more than 5,000 each).
Now, with the fee walloping new applicants, some Silicon Valley firms are telling employees to skip international trips amid the uncertainty, fearing visa snags could strand them abroad.
Economists aren’t mincing words about the fallout.
Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at Berenberg, called it a prime example of “anti-growth policymaking,” arguing that jacking up costs to lure foreign talent—while pushing international students to bolt after graduation—will crush productivity.
“By making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent, and by forcing some international students to leave the country after graduation, the brain drain will weigh heavily on productivity,” Bakiskan said.
He dismissed AI hype as a quick fix, adding, “Investments in artificial intelligence are unlikely to offset the damage caused by the loss of human capital under restrictive immigration policies.”
Berenberg has already slashed its US growth forecast from 2% at the year’s start to 1.5%, and Bakiskan hinted it might not stop there: “Taken together, the erosion of trust in institutions, a loss of human capital, tariffs, chronic uncertainty, and unsustainable fiscal policies can raise the tail risk of a financial crisis in the US.
In the long run, they may set a path for an even weaker dollar and higher long-term yields.”
Several Experts Jump In
The weekend buzz was brutal, too.
Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted the fee “caused a huge amount of uncertainty over the weekend for those that rely on it.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, pointed out that while cash-flush Big Tech players like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google can swallow the hit, smaller sectors won’t.
“Although these companies have the money to afford the visas, other sectors who also rely on H-1B visas may struggle with future recruitment, for example the health care and education sectors,” she said.
Across the Pacific, the reaction was swift and stinging.
India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, took a wry jab on Sunday, stating, “They are also a little afraid of our talent. We have no objection to that.”
But beneath the quip lies real pain—the Indian government flagged “humanitarian consequences” from family disruptions, and shares in outsourcing behemoths Infosys and Tata Consulting Services tumbled about 3% on Monday.
Both firms dispatch thousands of Indian workers to US clients via H-1B, and the fee could crimp that pipeline hard.
Trump’s White House clarified Saturday that the fee hits only fresh applications, but the damage is done: It’s amplifying fears that his “America First” agenda is closing doors on the very immigrants who’ve long powered US tech dominance.
As one analyst put it, this isn’t just policy—it’s a gamble that could leave America playing catch-up in the global talent race.
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