Even as the Trump administration touts the most secure U.S.-Mexico border in over half a century, fresh data reveals a stark seasonal spike in migrant apprehensions that’s raising questions about the staying power of its hardline immigration push.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) figures show Border Patrol agents nabbed more than 102,000 migrants trying to cross the southern border in September alone—a whopping 83% jump from the roughly 56,000 recorded in July.
It’s a reminder that while overall numbers have cratered to historic lows, the flow of people fleeing hardship south of the border hasn’t dried up entirely.
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This uptick comes against the backdrop of a fiscal year 2025 that saw just 238,000 total apprehensions along the southwest border, the lowest tally since 1970 when agents stopped only 202,000 unlawful entrants.
That’s a far cry from the chaos of the Biden years, when daily crossings sometimes topped 9,000 in a single 24-hour stretch.
More than 60% of this year’s catches happened in the final months of the previous administration, before Trump’s team hit the ground running with executive orders aimed at slamming the door shut.
By September, the pace had slowed to about 279 arrests per day—fewer than some two-hour bursts under Biden.
The administration’s response? Unwavering confidence.
A CBP spokesperson pushed back hard on October 28, telling Newsweek, “Under President Trump we have the most secure border in American history.
Newsweek is dishonestly splitting hairs over our historically low numbers by focusing on the percentage of change. Because numbers of apprehensions are so low, changes in trends can result in significant percentage changes.”
They pointed out that late summer often brings a natural bump—10 out of the last 13 years saw similar patterns going back to 2012.
But even with the rise, this summer’s total of 19,299 encounters pales next to last year’s 168,267, a 772% drop, and the Biden-era average of over half a million per summer, which was 2,813% higher.
Experts Weigh in on Entries Despite Deportations
Experts aren’t so quick to chalk it all up to the calendar.
Adam Isacson, a migration analyst with the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), flagged the increase in a post on X, noting, “Though overall numbers remain very low, it’s notable that Border Patrol’s apprehensions of migrants at the US-Mexico border increased 83 percent from July to September: people are still coming despite a historic, often abusive crackdown.”
Speaking to Newsweek, Isacson suggested it could be seasonal—migrants who aren’t chasing asylum tend to move more in spring and fall, skipping the scorching summers and harsh winters.
“If this is just a seasonal increase, we’ll have a sense of that in December,” he said.
There’s another wrinkle, too: blowback from the crackdown itself.
Isacson pointed to reports that some of the uptick might stem from deportees trying to slip back across to reunite with families or reclaim lives they’d built in the U.S. interior.
A Department of Homeland Security (DHS) source told the New York Post in August that this phenomenon became noticeable as interior removals ramped up, though it’s tough to pin down exactly how big a factor it is.
Trump’s playbook since January has been aggressive and multifaceted, blending executive muscle with boots on the ground.
On Inauguration Day, he inked 10 orders reshaping immigration policy: suspending entry for those tied to what he called an “invasion” at the border, barring asylum claims under the Immigration and Nationality Act for irregular crossers, and expanding ICE’s arrest powers nationwide.
The CBP One app—Biden’s tool for scheduling legal asylum screenings—went dark, stranding thousands in Mexico and dashing hopes for orderly entry.
Title 42-style rapid expulsions returned, refugee resettlement paused, and the Pentagon shipped in thousands of troops to back Border Patrol ops, including barrier expansions and fentanyl seizures.
The results? For five straight months, zero illegal immigrants have been released into the country pending hearings—a clean break from the catch-and-release era.
Administration Juices Up Border Deportations
ICE arrests hit 32,809 in Trump’s first 50 days alone, nearly matching Biden’s entire final year.
And the border’s gone quiet in spots: CBS reporter Camilo Montoya-Galvez described a recent trip where, unusually, “We did not see a single migrant.”
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem celebrated the FY2025 lows in announcing “Operation River Wall,” a new push to fortify the Rio Grande with barriers and patrols.
“Once again we have broken a new record with the lowest number of Southwest border apprehensions in 55 years,” she said.
But the interior dragnet has stirred controversy. NBC News reported on October 28 that the administration is swapping out some ICE regional bosses for Border Patrol vets to juice up deportation quotas, frustrated with the current pace.
This shift leans harder on agents trained for frontier interdictions, who’ve already drawn fire for urban raids—like the Black Hawk helicopter drop into a Chicago apartment complex earlier this month, where families were rousted from sleep.
Immigrant advocates call it “cavalier and aggressive,” arguing border pros aren’t equipped for city sweeps that snag non-criminals in the net.
The Guardian highlighted similar complaints from California’s Central Valley, where plainclothes stops in January netted random highway checks.
Nonpartisan voices see both wins and risks.
Ariel G. Ruiz Soto of the Migration Policy Institute credits the asylum shutdown and detention hikes for the big drop, telling Newsweek on October 7, “Strict restrictions to access asylum at the border, coupled with new detention policies, are the two most important factors that have led to the recent decline in irregular migrant arrivals.”
Jennie Murray, head of the National Immigration Forum, called the numbers “progress on border security” but urged Congress to craft bipartisan fixes rather than lean solely on executive fiat.
The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) hailed it as proof that enforcing existing laws works—no amnesty or new statutes needed.
White House Press Secretary Abigail Jackson echoed that to the BBC: “The latest border figures showed Trump was delivering on his pledge to secure the border.”
Secretary Noem added in her statement, “President Trump delivered the most secure southern border in U.S. history in record time, and now, our goal is to make sure it stays that way for the long run.”
What’s Next for America?
Looking ahead, the jury’s out on whether September’s blip signals trouble or just a blustery fall gust.
CBP expects the downward trend to hold as enforcement digs in, but Isacson warns volatility is the name of the game—migrants adapt, smuggling rings pivot, and Mexico’s cooperation, key to the initial plunge, could wobble amid trade spats.
With ICE eyeing 10 million unauthorized residents for removal and Border Patrol prepping for winter lulls, the administration’s betting its tough talk and tougher tactics will keep the numbers buried.
For now, the border feels more like a relic of the ’70s than a 21st-century hotspot. But in immigration, nothing’s set in stone.
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