Number of Republicans That Identify as MAGA Takes a Plunge

A fresh poll from NBC News indicates a noticeable cooling in enthusiasm for the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement among Republicans, with the share identifying more closely with MAGA dropping to an even split just months ahead of crucial midterm elections.

The survey, conducted between November 20 and December 8, 2025, among 20,252 adults, found that 50 percent of Republicans now say they associate more with the MAGA movement tied to President Donald Trump, while the other 50 percent feel greater kinship with the traditional Republican Party.

That’s a shift from April 2025, when 57 percent leaned toward MAGA and 43 percent toward the GOP establishment.

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This seven-point decline comes at a sensitive time for the party, which holds slim majorities in both the House and Senate.

Any internal divisions could complicate efforts to maintain control in the 2026 midterms, potentially affecting Trump’s influence and the direction of the GOP heading into the 2028 presidential race.

The poll also captured broader sentiment on Trump’s performance: Overall, 58 percent of respondents disapprove of the job he’s doing, compared to 42 percent who approve—a slight dip from April, when disapproval stood at 55 percent and approval at 45 percent.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 1.9 percentage points.

What’s Affecting This Reality?

Recent electoral setbacks may be contributing to the mood.

On November 4, 2025, Republicans underperformed in several key races, including the New York City mayoral contest where Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani triumphed over independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

High-profile rifts haven’t helped either.

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, long a prominent MAGA figure, clashed publicly with Trump before announcing her resignation from Congress effective January 2026.

In response to growing concerns about party unity, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles indicated last week that the strategy for 2026 would involve more campaigning by Trump himself.

Mark Shanahan, a lecturer in American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., weighed in on the implications.

Speaking to Newsweek, he said: “Trump isn’t on the ballot in 2026, but he will still dominate the election. It will be won and lost on the economy, so if that remains lackluster as the election campaign ramps up, his policies will damage GOP candidates.

And if Republicans lose control of Congress next November, all bets are off for who will be on the ballot for 2028.”

The Numbers Carry Weight But Trump Refuses to Accept Them

Trump has dismissed critical polling in the past.

In a November post on Truth Social, he wrote: “So many Fake Polls are being shown by the Radical Left Media, all slanted heavily toward Democrats and Far Left Wingers…Fake News will never change, they are evil and corrupt but, as I look around my beautiful surroundings, I say to myself, ‘Oh, look, I’m sitting in the Oval Office!'”

This isn’t the first time polling has tracked fluctuations in MAGA identification.

Earlier in the year, support for the movement surged.

An NBC News poll from March 2025 showed 71 percent of Republicans identifying as MAGA supporters, up significantly from 55 percent just before the 2024 election.

That consolidation helped Trump match some of his highest approval ratings early in his second term.

Other surveys painted a similar picture of growth at the time.

A Vanderbilt Unity Poll in February 2025 marked the first time a majority—52 percent—of Republicans nationally identified more with MAGA than the traditional GOP, up from 37 percent in mid-2023.

YouGov/Economist polling hit a peak in mid-March 2025, with 60-61 percent of Republicans self-identifying as MAGA.

Men were more likely to embrace the label (around 59-67 percent) compared to women (45-54 percent), and it was higher among veterans, union members, and very conservative voters.

But by May and June 2025, signs of erosion appeared.

YouGov data showed the share dipping below 50 percent at times, settling around 53 percent in some readings.

Non-MAGA Republicans expressed more pessimism about the economy and personal finances.

Series of Polls Tell the Story

A POLITICO poll in late November 2025 highlighted another divide: More than a third of 2024 Trump voters did not consider themselves MAGA Republicans.

These voters were less likely to blame the prior administration for economic issues and more open to Democratic ideas on topics like health care.

An NBC News Decision Desk poll from mid-December echoed the cracks, noting Republicans evenly split between MAGA and traditional identifiers.

Strong approval for Trump among MAGA supporters fell to 70 percent from 78 percent in April.

Additional polling provides context on Trump’s standing. A December I&I/TIPP survey pegged his net approval at -3 points (44 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove).

Morning Consult found his net approval positive in 22 states—slightly better than a comparable point in his first term.

A Manhattan Institute survey from October-November 2025 examined the evolving GOP coalition, noting differences between long-time Republicans and newer entrants, including on issues like spending and conspiracy beliefs.

What Happens Next?

As the midterm cycle heats up, these shifts suggest the MAGA brand—once dominant—may be facing headwinds.

Economic concerns remain front and center, with tariffs and other policies drawing mixed reviews even within the party.

The popularity of MAGA has ebbed and flowed before, but with control of Congress on the line in November 2026, the coming months could prove pivotal for Trump’s legacy and the party’s future direction.

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Also Read: Trump’s Latest Executive Order is Now Under Fire by GOP

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