- Trump’s disapproval has jumped to 58 percent, the highest of his second term, creating electoral headwinds for Republicans in 2026.
- Democratic voter enthusiasm is rising, potentially boosting turnout and reshaping battleground states and congressional margins.
New polling data reveal that Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has surged to 58 percent — the highest since the beginning of his second term — at the same time that Democratic voter enthusiasm is rising ahead of the 2026 mid-terms.
This shift signals potential headwinds for Republicans and a possible opening for Democrats.
The Numbers
A recent poll by Reuters-Ipsos found that Trump’s disapproval rating stands at 58 percent, up from 52 percent in May. His approval rating remains in the low-forties.
Data compiled by polling trackers show his net approval is roughly -13 points among all adults, with similar deficits among likely voters.
Meanwhile, another poll indicates the fraction of Democratic voters who say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2026 is up by several points, signaling a possible activation boost.
Why It Matters
1. Republican risk intensifies. With the president’s approval underwater, down-ballot Republicans—especially House and Senate candidates who tie closely to Trump—may face headwinds in competitive districts. Voters dissatisfied with presidential performance often carry that into mid-term votes.
2. Democrat enthusiasm rising. Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is a key metric in mid-term forecasting. If turnout among Democrats surpasses expectations, it could reshape battleground states and congressional margins.
3. Independent voters shifting. Polling shows independents have grown more disapproving of Trump, particularly around economic and governance issues. That demographic remains crucial in swing states.
4. Communications and messaging challenge. The Trump campaign and GOP leadership must now contend not only with opposition narratives but internal concern about electability, fundraising, and strategy going into 2026.
Key Themes Emerging
Governance fatigue. The recent historic shutdown and budget brinkmanship appear to have weighed on public perception of Washington’s competence.
A separate poll found that just 36 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the federal government this November, compared to 43 percent in March.
Economic dissatisfaction. While the stock market remains elevated, many households feel the pinch of inflation, wage stagnation and rising costs.
That economic mood is showing up in presidential job-ratings and could translate into mid-term voting behavior.
Turnout dynamics. Enthusiasm is rising among Democrats, but past mid-terms show that negative sentiment toward the president alone doesn’t guarantee high turnout.
Mobilization efforts, candidate profiles and local issues will matter.
What to Watch Next
- State-level polls in key battlegrounds. Are similar approval declines seen in Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia or Arizona? These states will be pivotal in 2026.
- Voter enthusiasm maps. Tracking “very enthusiastic” self-reported voters among both parties will give early clues about turnout strength.
- Republican messaging shift. Will the GOP pivot away from Trump-centric campaigns toward broader appeal, or double down on his brand?
- Independent voter sentiment and behavior. With independents showing increased disapproval of Trump, how will they cast ballots in 2026—and will they vote at all?
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