As the federal government grinds to a halt in a bitter partisan standoff, President Donald Trump is playing a high-stakes game of political chess.
While hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed and essential services like food safety checks and Social Security verifications falter, the administration has quietly fortified its core priorities: iron-fisted immigration enforcement and aggressive tariff negotiations.
It’s a calculated move designed to let Trump’s “America First” agenda hum along uninterrupted – and pin the blame squarely on Democrats.
The Government shutdown, triggered late Tuesday after talks collapsed over spending and border security, marks the first major fiscal crisis of Trump’s second term.
But unlike past impasses, this one comes with a twist: the White House has prepped a fortress of exemptions and workarounds to keep its pet projects alive.
A deep dive into agency contingency plans filed with the Office of Management and Budget, plus insights from insiders across the administration, reveals how Trump’s team is not just surviving the chaos – they’re exploiting it.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste,” quipped former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, channeling his old Chicago mayoral pal Rahm Emanuel.
“The Trump folks are masters at this.
Every hour of this shutdown lets them fund what they love and gut what their opponents cherish – all above board.”
Immigration Enforcement
At the heart of Trump’s shielding strategy is the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the bureaucratic behemoth overseeing border security and deportations.
In a stark departure from shutdowns past, DHS’s 2025 contingency plan calls for retaining a whopping 95% of its workforce – up from 88% in 2023.
That’s an extra 2,300 employees shielded by law, ensuring that Border Patrol agents, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, and support staff keep the deportation machine running at full throttle.
Two senior administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to detail sensitive planning, confirmed that all core immigration operations will chug along without a hitch.
“ICE will be fine during a shutdown,” one said flatly.
“Most of what ICE does will continue.”
The buffer comes courtesy of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” – Trump’s sweeping tax and domestic policy overhaul from earlier this year – which baked in mandatory funding for new hires and enforcement tools.
Even officers who might otherwise go unpaid until Congress coughs up a deal will get their checks rerouted through OBBB streams.
Furloughs? Minimal. Delays in Trump’s mass-deportation push? Nonexistent.
This isn’t just continuity; it’s acceleration. With Democrats dug in against new border wall funding, the administration sees the shutdown as a chance to embed irreversible changes.
“We can do things during the shutdown that are bad for them and irreversible,” Trump warned reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, a grin betraying his relish.
“Like cutting vast numbers of people out. Cutting programs they like.”
Tariffs and Trade
Trump’s trade warriors are equally insulated.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) is retaining 60% of its staff during the lapse – double the 40% from last year’s plan – including 118 full-time employees now deemed “essential” for high-priority duties, up from a mere four.
That means ongoing negotiations with China, India, Japan, and South Korea won’t skip a beat, even as courts challenge the tariffs’ national security justifications.
Over at the Commerce Department, import licensing for steel and aluminum, sector-specific tariff probes, and export controls are all greenlit to proceed “without exception.”
These weren’t explicitly protected in 2023’s playbook, signaling how Trump’s team has elevated trade from a back-burner issue to a shutdown-proof imperative.
The rationale? Trump has long framed trade deficits as an existential threat, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to keep the pressure on.
A draft USTR plan, briefly posted online before being pulled, spelled it out: Tariff programs tied to that act get a pass, letting deal-makers haggle over billions in the shadows of Capitol Hill gridlock.
The Bigger Play
This selective safeguarding isn’t accidental – it’s surgical.
White House budget chief Russ Vought has directed agencies to draft “reduction-in-force” plans, eyeing a potential cull of the federal workforce that could disproportionately hit Democratic strongholds.
“If something kinks Trump’s agenda even for a couple days, they’ll MacGyver a fix,” one first-term Trump alum said, requesting anonymity for the candor.
Targeting the “federal bureaucracy – primarily represented by Dems” could amplify the hurt without alienating GOP base voters in red states.
Not everything escapes the freeze, of course.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is halting all ops, delaying the October jobs report amid lingering economic jitters – a sore spot after Trump ousted Commissioner Erika McEntarfer over a weak September readout.
The FDA’s Animal Drugs and Foods Program is pausing safety reviews for new livestock feed additives, potentially leaving gaps in the food chain for meat, milk, and eggs.
NASA’s Artemis program and Interior Department fossil fuel permitting?
Those sail on, courtesy of prior appropriations.
But Democratic bids to shield expiring health insurance subsidies?
Crushed under the shutdown’s boot.
Public Mood Tilts Against the Blue Wall
Politically, the timing couldn’t be worse for Democrats.
A fresh New York Times-Siena College poll shows 65% of Americans – including 43% of Democrats – oppose a shutdown, even if it means caving on demands.
White House aides are betting their prep work will blunt the backlash from furloughed feds and irate voters.
“We’re not manipulating anything,” one aide insisted anonymously.
“There are approved funds in the One Big Beautiful Bill that don’t lapse.
The rest? That’s 100% on Democrats for playing chicken.”
As the clock ticks toward an uncertain resolution, Trump’s gambit lays bare the raw exercise of executive power in a divided era.
The shutdown may shutter park gates and stall routine checks, but for the president’s signature fights – walls, tariffs, and workforce whacks – it’s business as usual. Or, per usual, business accelerated.
For now, the Rose Garden strolls continue, Marine One rotors spin, and the art of the deal endures.
The question is how long Democrats can stomach the spotlight before the pain becomes too much to bear.
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Also Read: Economists Now Warn Trump’s Immigration Policies Will Slow US Economy
