- Trump blames tariffs and insists his economy is "the greatest," despite voter anger over rising prices and job losses.
- Economic indicators—3% inflation, job cuts, low consumer sentiment—undermine GOP standing ahead of 2026 midterms.
- GOP officials and MAGA voters voice rare dissent, warning tariffs and proposed $2,000 rebates risk political and fiscal fallout.
President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is staring down a harsh reality.
Stinging defeats in key off-year elections—from Virginia’s gubernatorial race to surprising Democratic pickups in New Jersey and Pennsylvania—have thrust the economy front and center as the defining issue threatening the GOP’s grip on power.
What was once dismissed as a fleeting “con job” by Democrats has morphed into a full-blown crisis of confidence among voters, with Trump’s signature tariffs blamed for everything from skyrocketing grocery bills to a sputtering job market.
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As the dust settles from these losses, whispers of discontent are growing louder within Republican ranks.
Lawmakers who once cheered Trump’s “America First” agenda are now grappling with the political fallout of policies that promised to revive manufacturing but have instead delivered persistent price hikes and economic unease.
“This is his economy now,” says Lawrence J. White, an economist at NYU Stern School of Business, capturing the sentiment that’s rippling through Capitol Hill corridors.
With midterms looming in 2026, the party’s tariff cheerleaders are starting to hedge their bets, fearing that voter wallets—hit hard by unrelenting inflation—could spell doom for the House and Senate majorities.
3% Inflation, Vanishing Jobs, and Sinking Sentiment
The numbers paint a picture that’s hard for even the most ardent Trump supporters to spin.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation held steady at 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending in September 2025—the same rate Trump inherited from the Biden era, dashing hopes of the swift price drops he vowed during the campaign.
October’s consumer price index, typically released mid-month, remains in limbo amid a partial government shutdown, but private-sector indicators suggest no relief is in sight.
Worse still, the jobs engine that powered Trump’s first-term boasts is stalling out.
Payroll processor ADP’s latest report revealed that U.S. firms shed an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs per week through late October, pointing to a net loss of around 50,000 positions for the month overall.
Major companies, from tech giants to manufacturers, have announced thousands of layoffs, citing tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and uncertainty over trade deals.
Federal government employment, meanwhile, has flatlined amid budget battles.
Polls underscore the breadth of the discontent.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment plunged to 50.4 in November 2025, its lowest since the early pandemic days.
An Economist/YouGov survey found 62 percent of independents declaring the economy “getting worse,” while a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll showed a majority of Americans shelling out more for groceries and utilities than a year ago.
Trump’s net approval on economic handling has cratered to -33 points across aggregated polls, mirroring the lows that plagued Joe Biden in 2022.
Nate Silver’s analysis pegs the president’s overall net approval at -13 points as of early November, a sharp slide from just weeks prior.
In battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin—where tariffs were sold as a boon for blue-collar workers—the pain is acute.
Rural heartland towns, once Trump strongholds, are reeling as global manufacturers scrap expansion plans amid trade wars.
One North Carolina farmer, speaking anonymously to The Guardian, summed it up: “We voted for jobs, not higher feed costs.”
‘The Greatest Economy in History’ Amid the Storm
From the gilded confines of Mar-a-Lago to Fox News green rooms, Trump has doubled down on his narrative of triumph.
In a recent interview, he brushed off affordability gripes as overhyped, insisting, “The economy is my thing. And we have the greatest economy in history.”
At the McDonald’s Impact Summit earlier this month, he told attendees they were “so damn lucky” he won, warning of a “catastrophe” under Kamala Harris that would have seen “$10 trillion leaving our country” instead of the “$20 trillion coming in” thanks to his tariffs.
The president has touted record tax revenues from his trade barriers—trillions, by White House estimates—as proof of success, even floating “surgical” rollbacks on select imports like Brazilian coffee, bananas, and beef to ease food inflation.
“Coffee, we’re going to lower some tariffs. We’re going to have some coffee come in. We’re going to take care of all this stuff very quickly, very easily. It’s surgical. It’s beautiful to watch,” Trump quipped on Fox.
His team, led by press secretary Karoline Leavitt, frames it as a masterstroke: “President Trump wants to restore America as a manufacturing superpower around the globe.”
Yet a senior White House official admitted privately to CNN that frustration is mounting.
“The president gets it. He knows this is an issue,” the aide said.
“But he’s frustrated he’s not getting credit for what he’s doing.”
Trump’s latest brainstorm—a $2,000 rebate check for most Americans, funded by tariff windfalls—has only amplified the unease, with critics inside and outside the party labeling it a inflationary Band-Aid.
Whispers Turn to Warnings: GOP Lawmakers Voice Rare Dissent
For months, Republican unity held firm, but the election drubbing has cracked the facade.
Budget hawks and free-trade stalwarts are no longer content with private grumbles; they’re airing qualms that border on outright rebellion.
Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Trump loyalist who once touted tariffs as “short-term pain for long-term gain,” now urges caution on the $2,000 checks.
“I think it’s an idea that needs to be fleshed out… We’re $36, $37 trillion in debt. To me, I think our bus is full. If you want to add something, then take something off the bus. That’s just me,” Zinke told reporters.
Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett echoed the fiscal restraint, tying it directly to Trump’s trade agenda.
While acknowledging “people are hurting,” he warned, “have to see how it affected the debt,” before adding a tepid nod to tariffs: “it’s going to cause some pain. But I think we will turn the corner on it.”
Burchett’s reservations highlight a broader GOP fear: that stimulus-fueled “inflationary bubbles” could echo the COVID-era checks many conservatives decried under Biden.
Senate tariff skeptics are even blunter behind the scenes.
North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, facing his own reelection in a tariff-sensitive state, predicted Trump would “push the limits” regardless of pushback.
“Outside of a court order, he’s going to push the limits,” Tillis said.
An anonymous Republican senator went further: “I think people see that something’s driving up costs and tariffs are at the front of it. The president is so enamored with tariffs that it’s clearly a Trump-Republican thing, so it has a consequence.”
Even Trump’s orbit isn’t immune.
Paul Dans, architect of Project 2025 and a challenger to Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina’s primary, accused the administration of a “hijacking.”
“President Trump is instinctually America First, but things are seriously askew. America First is experiencing a hijacking right now. He’s getting bad advice and is being kept in a bubble,” Dans lamented.
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, eyeing midterm survival, warned that without quick wins, “Trump could become a liability.”
Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore, rarely shy about defending the boss, admitted the chaos: “One of the problems with the tariff strategy is it’s been a lot of turmoil—uncertainty and turmoil.”
GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe, based in Michigan, captured the resignation: “It’s baked into the electorate that doing these tariffs will have some sort of short-term pain, but that we’ll realize some long-term gain.”
From MAGA Heartland to Online Fury: The Base Bites Back
The unrest isn’t confined to Capitol Hill—it’s festering in Trump’s most fervent strongholds.
NBC News interviews with 18 Trump voters from recent polls revealed a chorus of unmet expectations: higher electricity bills, curtailed work hours, and canceled contracts in red states.
In rural America, where tariffs were meant to herald a manufacturing renaissance, factories stand idle as companies like those in the auto sector balk at aluminum and steel surcharges.
Online, the MAGA faithful are turning.
After Trump downplayed a 50-year mortgage proposal as “not even a big deal” and endorsed H-1B visas for foreign workers—sparking cries of “America Last”—forums and X threads erupted.
One viral post from a Trump 2024 volunteer read: “We voted for walls, not work visas handing jobs to foreigners.”
Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, ever the firebrand, urged a course correction: “Focus on America First economic policies,” she posted, after months of White House detours.
Todd Belt, a political management professor at George Washington University, nails the peril: “You can’t ‘out-message’ what people are feeling in their pocketbooks. Presidents can lift morale by charting a decisive course and avoiding the shocks caused by policy reversals. To date, Trump hasn’t been very good at those things.”
Rollbacks, Rebates, and the Supreme Court Shadow
Desperation is breeding improvisation.
Trump has dialed back tariffs on food staples—bananas, coffee, tomatoes—to stem grocery inflation, a move his team hails as “beautiful” precision.
The $2,000 checks, however, face a steep uphill battle, requiring congressional buy-in and Supreme Court blessing on tariff legality under a 1977 emergency powers law.
Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford offers a sliver of optimism for believers: “They would say there’s been a benefit, as well, to American production.”
But with only 30 percent of voters believing Trump has tackled inflation (per NBC News) and 27 percent crediting his policies for improvement (CNN), time is short.
As the shutdown drags on—threatening delayed economic data and SNAP benefits for millions—the GOP faces a reckoning.
Will Trump’s alchemy rebound, or will this affordability albatross drag the party into the abyss? One thing’s clear: The “lucky” voters he touted are feeling anything but.
In the heartland and on the Hill, the backlash is just beginning.
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