- Latino voter sentiment flipped sharply: 65% now say it’s a bad time to be Latino, with belonging, optimism, and American Dream beliefs collapsing.
- Economic anxieties — inflation, healthcare costs, jobs — outrank immigration and are driving growing anti-incumbent, pro-Democrat swings in recent elections.
- Federal shutdown, benefit disruptions, and aggressive immigration enforcement are straining Trump’s coalition and risking midterm backlash.
Nine months after Donald Trump reclaimed the White House, the president who rode a wave of working-class discontent back to power is facing an unexpected backlash from the very voters who propelled him there.
Recent polls paint a picture of mounting frustration over soaring costs, aggressive immigration crackdowns, and a federal government shutdown that’s left millions scrambling for basics like food stamps.
While Trump’s core Republican loyalists still back him in overwhelming numbers, broader discontent among independents and even some of his 2024 supporters signals potential trouble ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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The warning signs are starkest among Latino voters, a bloc that swung decisively toward Trump last year in states like Florida, Texas, and Nevada.
A new Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll, conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, reveals that nearly two-thirds—65 percent—now say it’s a bad time to be Latino or Hispanic in America. That’s a dramatic reversal from March 2024, when 55 percent viewed it positively, and a complete flip from October 2022, when optimism led by the same margin.
Only 31 percent see it as a good time, with feelings of belonging, optimism about the future, and belief in the American Dream all plummeting. Just 40 percent say the U.S. makes them feel like they belong, down from 51 percent last year; 44 percent believe they can achieve the American Dream, a drop from 53 percent; and only 36 percent feel optimistic about the country’s future, off five points.
List of Concerns Pushing Voters Away from Trump
Ipsos vice president Mallory Newall captured the depth of this shift in an interview with Axios: “The findings show really clear signs that the issues that matter most to this group are not being addressed,” adding that the growing pessimism reflects how “people’s lived experience and outcome on their finances feel increasingly pessimistic.”
Economic anxiety tops the list of concerns, with majorities citing inflation, healthcare costs, and jobs as priorities—ranking ahead of even immigration or border policies.
This isn’t just a Latino issue; it’s bleeding into the wider electorate. Preliminary CNN exit polls from off-year races in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California on November 4 showed voters expressing “similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments” to those that helped fuel Trump’s 2024 win, but now turned against him.
In those contests, majorities disapproved of Trump’s performance, with economic woes—taxes, cost of living, and the economy overall—emerging as the top worry.
Voters in California, New York City, and New Jersey took particularly dim views of their local economies, while in Virginia, 56 percent said federal cuts this year had dinged their family’s finances, and two-thirds of those broke for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger.
More Americans Are Losing Trust in Government
The numbers underscore a broader erosion. A Politico poll from early November found that strong majorities of both Trump voters (64 percent) and Kamala Harris voters (70 percent) agree the government “often deliberately lies to the people,” reflecting a cynicism that crosses party lines.
Nearly two-thirds of Harris voters—and a notable chunk of Trump backers—said the U.S.’s best days are behind it, with 51 percent of Harris voters declaring the American Dream “no longer exists,” compared to an even split among Trump voters.
Meanwhile, a Guardian/Harris Poll from September showed 75 percent of Americans reporting monthly costs up by $100 to $749, despite Trump’s “day one” pledge to slash prices.
At the heart of this unrest is a federal government shutdown that’s stretched into its second month, triggered by a standoff over spending. Trump and House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, have dug in against Democratic demands to extend health care subsidies and fund programs like SNAP (food stamps) without concessions on immigration enforcement.
The impasse has furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal workers, delayed air travel, and disrupted benefits for millions.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll pinned most blame on Republican congressional leadership (50 percent) over Democrats (43 percent), though Trump’s personal approval ticked up slightly to the mid-40s.
Trump Supporters Hit the Hardest
The shutdown’s ripple effects are hitting Trump’s base hardest. Federal judges have ordered the administration to tap emergency funds for partial SNAP coverage in November, but Trump contradicted earlier White House insistence that no money was available, saying he’d seek court clarity to “legally fund SNAP as soon as possible.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries accused Republicans of trying to “weaponize hunger” by refusing to budge.
About one in five Americans report being financially pinched by the shutdown, with two in five knowing someone who is.
President Donald Trump’s administration is also quietly pushing forward with changes to Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) that experts warn would slash eligibility for hundreds of thousands of older workers—many of them in the very Southern and Appalachian regions that handed him landslide victories in 2024 and again this year.
The proposals, first detailed in late October reports, would either eliminate age as a factor in deciding who qualifies for benefits or bump the key threshold from 50 to 60, making it far tougher for injured blue-collar workers in their 50s to get approved.
The Role of Immigration
Immigration, a cornerstone of Trump’s appeal, is another flashpoint. While 86 percent of Republican-leaning voters still approve of his handling of it, per a recent YouGov/Economist poll, broader enforcement has sparked backlash.
Raids in cities like Los Angeles and Chicago have led to protests, with Trump authorizing National Guard deployments against local officials’ wishes—drawing accusations of overreach.
In Virginia and New Jersey exit polls, majorities said the administration’s actions have “gone too far,” with Democrats winning 90 percent of those voters.
Videos of plainclothes ICE agents in unmarked cars swarming worksites have fueled anger, including a Chicago crash last month that prompted tear gas deployment.
These policies are straining Trump’s coalition. NBC News exit polls showed 55 percent disapproval in New Jersey and 56 percent in Virginia—blue-leaning states, but ones where Trump narrowed margins in 2024.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found 59 percent overall disapproval of Trump’s job performance, with 69 percent of independents thumbs-down.
Republican’s Take on Trump
Even among Republicans, approval on inflation and costs lags behind border security, per a Marquette Law School Poll, with confidence in reducing prices down 21 points since December.
The partisan chasm is widening the tensions. Gallup’s latest survey pegs Trump’s overall approval at a steady 41 percent, but Congress’s rating has cratered to 15 percent amid the shutdown—driven by an 11-point GOP drop.
Republicans give their congressional leaders a 69 percent nod, up from recent lows, but independents and Democrats see gridlock as self-inflicted.
Democrats, meanwhile, are capitalizing: Wins in Virginia (Spanberger), New Jersey (Mikie Sherrill), and New York City (Zohran Mamdani) were framed as referendums on Trump’s economy, with candidates blaming him for family budget squeezes.
Spanberger told supporters in Falls Church on November 2: “November 4 is the day we get to set an extraordinary example. Are you ready to win decisively?”
Trump’s response has been muted on the domestic front—he stayed low-key during the elections, signaling pessimism about GOP chances.
But abroad, he’s flexed muscle: Brokering a Gaza ceasefire in October boosted his Israel-Hamas handling to 47 percent approval (up from 30 percent), though Russia-Ukraine lags at 30 percent.
Threats of 100 percent tariffs on China and military moves in Nigeria have rattled markets and allies, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7 percent on tariff news.
For now, Trump’s hold on Republicans remains ironclad—86 percent approval in the latest Post-ABC/Ipsos survey, and 80 percent on foreign policy per Emerson.
But as one Atlantic analysis put it, some of his voters are “ready to blame him if their lives don’t improve soon.”
With midterms looming, the question is whether this buyer’s remorse turns into a full revolt—or if Trump can pivot to deliver the relief he promised.
The base that cheered his return is starting to whisper doubts, and in politics, that’s often the loudest alarm of all.
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