NEW YORK — Bitcoin took a sharp tumble on Friday, dropping over 6.16% to $114,00 as of 4:34 p.m. PST, marking a volatile end to a week that saw the cryptocurrency briefly flirt with all-time highs before retreating amid profit-taking and macroeconomic jitters.
The cryptocurrency hit $104,953.16 before bouncing up to current levels.
The slide, which wiped out about $1.2 trillion from the global crypto market cap, comes as investors digest a mix of Fed rate cut expectations, ETF outflows, and lingering election-year uncertainties, with analysts warning of a potential “healthy correction” before any sustained rally.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks, surging past $126,000 earlier in October on optimism around institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
But Friday’s dip—its steepest single-day drop since early September—reflected broader market fatigue. Ethereum fared worse, falling over 5% to below $4,500, while the overall crypto market capitalization shed more than 3% in the past 24 hours, per CoinDesk data.
Trading volume spiked to $240 billion across centralized exchanges, up 7.58% from August’s record $9.72 trillion, signaling heightened activity even as prices cooled.
Why is Bitcoin dropping? Well, reasons for the downturn are multifaceted. Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive.xyz, pointed to a lack of fresh catalysts: “The lack of new catalysts is one of the key reasons for crypto’s current stagnation.”
Many institutional players are holding exposure but avoiding aggressive expansion, per CryptoQuant and Glassnode analyses, leading to thinner liquidity and sharper swings.
Bitcoin’s volatility is “poised for a breakout,” Dawson added, with the Fed’s late-October FOMC meeting looming as a potential trigger for a major move up or down.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $23.81 million in outflows on Thursday, contrasting with $420.87 million in inflows for Ethereum ETFs, according to Farside Investors.
The divergence highlights shifting sentiment: While BTC funds have drawn $2 billion in the first two days of the week, recent pullbacks have prompted some profit-taking.
“The corrective phase is likely behind us,” noted QCP Capital, but “the broader context continues to favor a bullish fourth quarter.”
Still, the key question remains: “When risk begins to outweigh reward.”
Recent Volatility: From $126K Highs to $114K Lows
The drop fits a pattern of choppy trading in early October. On October 8, Bitcoin fell from its all-time high of $126,000 to around $121,200—a 1.8% decline—while Ethereum plunged over 5% to $4,455, per Yahoo Finance.
The market cap dipped 2.2% to $4.26 trillion, with 90 of the top 100 coins down and only BNB bucking the trend at +4.8% to $1,278.
“Bitcoin volatility is poised for a breakout,” Dawson reiterated, as sentiment shifted from greed to neutral.
By October 10, the pressure mounted further. Bitcoin traded at $121,142, down 0.5%, with Ethereum at $4,332 (-1.9%), and 75 of the top 100 coins in the red. Aster (ASTER) shed 14% to $1.56, while Zcash (ZEC) bucked the trend with a 32.7% jump to $238.81.
Trading volume hit $206 billion, but the lack of momentum—intraday highs of $123,548 giving way to lows of $119,967—underscored consolidation. “Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains bullish heading into late 2025,” per CoinDCX, but sustaining above $122K-$124K is key for a push to $128K-$130K by mid-month.
Changelly’s forecast for October 2025 sees BTC fluctuating between $121,921 and $131,124, with an average of $126,523—optimistic amid the dip. Mudrex pegged Friday’s price at $122,878 (-0.74%), attributing it to “structural liquidity pockets” dominating when macro news is muted.
“October often carries a constructive seasonal bias for Bitcoin,” Mudrex noted, but “seasonality is a tailwind, not a shield.”
ETF Inflows Offer Glimmer Amid the Slide
Despite the pullback, spot Bitcoin ETFs provided a counterbalance, pulling in $876 million on October 8—their strongest day since July—per Farside Investors.
Combined with $1.2 billion from Monday, BTC funds have netted $2 billion for the week, even as prices dipped 2.7% to below $121,000.
Ethereum ETFs saw $62.05 million in inflows, bucking BTC’s outflows of $440.73 million the prior day.
S&P Global’s launch of the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index on October 8 added institutional heft, tracking top digital assets. Gate exchange surged 98.9% to $746 billion in volume, overtaking Bitget as the fourth-largest platform, while open interest rose 4.92% to $187 billion.
“The wave of cash came as prices fell sharply,” CoinDesk reported, with ETH declining twice as fast as BTC. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel reiterated his long-term call: Bitcoin could capture half of gold’s market size, implying $644,000 per BTC if it becomes “digital gold” for younger generations.
“That scenario… hinges on bitcoin as a more appealing store of value,” Sigel posted on X, amid gold’s rally.Analyst Takes: Correction or Opportunity?
Experts see the dip as healthy. QCP Capital called it a “credibility hedge,” with Glassnode and CryptoQuant debating if the rally’s conviction masks complacency. “The corrective phase is likely behind us,” they said, favoring a bullish Q4.
CoinDCX’s model targets $128K-$130K by mid-October if BTC holds above $122K-$124K, with ETF flows and institutional buying as tailwinds.
Changelly’s October range of $121,921-$131,124 aligns with Mudrex’s view: Dips to $118K-$120K could open $117K support, but upside to $132K-$135K looms. “Bitcoin’s structure looks increasingly constructive after reclaiming all major EMAs,” CoinDCX added.
For investors, it’s a wait-and-see. The Fed’s FOMC could catalyze a breakout, but as Dawson noted, “Many institutional participants are maintaining exposure but avoiding significant portfolio expansion.”
With sentiment neutral and volume elevated, Friday’s 5.5% slide to $114,505 feels like a breather—perhaps the calm before October’s seasonal storm.
Bitcoin is trading at $114,887.78 at the time of this writing.
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